Ethylene oxide drives polycarboxylic acid monomer price increase Depth analysis: coproduction game Ethylene oxide drives polycarboxylic acid monomer price increase Depth analysis: coproduction game , cost conduction and market outlook logic, cost conduction and market outlook logic
1. The core underlying logic of this round of price increases: the structural market of capacity redistribution of coproduction devices 1. The core underlying logic of this round of price increases: the structural market of capacity redistribution of coproduction devices
The price increase of ethylene oxide (EO) and polycarboxylic acid superplasticizer monomer (HPEG/TPEG) is not driven by a single raw material unilateral increase, but the price increase of ethylene oxide (EO) and polycarboxylic acid superplasticizer monomer (HPEG/TPEG) is not driven by a single raw material unilateral increase, but by EO/ethylene glycol co-production unit capacity ratio switching + international raw material cost backing + phased device maintenance EO/ethylene glycol co-production unit capacity ratio switching + international raw material cost backing + phased device maintenance The result of the triple structural positive resonance is also a typical "product premium transmission" market in the fine chemical co-production system. The vast majority of ethylene oxide plants in the industry are EO and ethylene glycol co-production processes. The two sets of product systems share ethylene raw materials and core reaction devices. Enterprises can flexibly adjust the production ratio according to the market profit difference between the two types of products. This is the core and most easily ignored underlying logic of this round of market. The result of triple structural positive resonance is also a typical "product premium transmission" market in the fine chemical co-production system. The vast majority of ethylene oxide plants in the industry are EO and ethylene glycol co-production processes. The two sets of product systems share ethylene raw materials and core reaction devices. Enterprises can flexibly adjust the production ratio according to the market profit difference between the two types of products. This is the core and most easily ignored underlying logic of this round of market.
Since late March, the domestic ethylene glycol price has skyrocketed from 6,800 yuan/ton to 8,700 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 28%. The profit margin of ethylene glycol has been greatly expanded, which has forced most domestic co-production units. Since late March, the domestic ethylene glycol price has skyrocketed from 6,800 yuan/ton to 8,700 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 28%. The profit margin of ethylene glycol has been greatly expanded, forcing most domestic co-production units to prioritize the production of ethylene glycol, and actively compress the output ratio of ethylene oxide. This production strategy adjustment directly led to the passive tightening of the supply of ethylene oxide market circulation, superimposed on the active shrinkage caused by the centralized maintenance of EO devices at the end of the month, and the market supply and demand pattern quickly shifted from the loose balance in the previous period to the tight balance, laying a supply-side foundation for the 24-day general increase of 200 yuan/ton of ethylene oxide. Unlike the increase in the price of conventional raw materials, this round of EO rise has no excessive hype components, and relies entirely on the real spot gap brought about by capacity deployment. Therefore, the pace of price increases is stable and the landing is extremely strong., actively compressing the output ratio of ethylene oxide. This production strategy adjustment directly led to the passive tightening of the supply of ethylene oxide market circulation, superimposed on the active shrinkage caused by the centralized maintenance of EO devices at the end of the month, and the market supply and demand pattern quickly shifted from the loose balance in the previous period to the tight balance, laying a supply-side foundation for the Unlike the price increase of conventional raw materials, this round of EO rise has no excessive hype, and relies entirely on the real spot gap brought about by production capacity deployment. Therefore, the rhythm of price increases is stable and the landing is extremely strong.
At the same time, the upstream Northeast Asian ethylene market has formed a long-term cost support. From the beginning of March to the present, the price of ethylene in Northeast Asia has risen from $1,230/ton to $1,340/ton, an increase of nearly 9% in the range. Even if there is a small short-term correction, the overall high-level operating pattern has not been broken. Ethylene, as the only core raw material of ethylene oxide, has its high price shock locked in the production cost bottom line of EO, completely sealed the downward space of ethylene oxide, forming a two-way positive pattern of "upstream raw material support + mid-end capacity reduction", supporting the smooth landing of this round of price increases. At the same time, the upstream Northeast Asian ethylene market has formed a long-term cost support. From the beginning of March to the present, the price of ethylene in Northeast Asia has risen from $1,230/ton to $1,340/ton, an increase of nearly 9% in the range. Even if there is a small short-term correction, the overall high-level operating pattern has not been broken. Ethylene, as the only core raw material of ethylene oxide, has its high price shock locked in the bottom line of EO's production cost, completely sealing the downward space of ethylene oxide, forming a two-way positive pattern of "upstream raw material support + mid-end production capacity reduction", supporting the smooth landing of this round of price increases.
II. Strong binding and conduction mechanism between polyether monomers and ethylene oxide (industry core feature) II. Strong binding and conduction mechanism between polyether monomers and ethylene oxide (industry core feature)
Polycarboxylic acid water reducer core monomers HPEG and TPEG belong to ethylene oxide downstream high-dependency polyether products, with polycarboxylic acid water reducer core monomers HPEG and TPEG belong to ethylene oxide downstream high-dependency polyether products, with high cost concentration, conduction zero lag, price high linkage high cost concentration, conduction zero lag, price high linkage industry characteristics, which is also the core reason why the monomers immediately followed suit after the EO price increase. From the perspective of production process and cost structure, polyether large monomer single ton product consumes about 0.96-0 tons of ethylene oxide, and the cost of ethylene oxide accounts for more than 95% of the total cost of polyether monomer, which almost determines the price trend of monomer. The price correlation between the two has remained above 0.95 all year round, which belongs to one of the upstream and downstream combinations with the strongest linkage in the chemical industry chain. The industry characteristics are also the core reasons why the monomer immediately rose synchronously after the EO price increase. From the perspective of production process and cost structure, polyether large monomer single ton product consumes about 0.96-0 tons of ethylene oxide, and the cost of ethylene oxide accounts for more than 95% of the total cost of polyether monomer, which almost determines the price trend of monomer. The price correlation between the two has remained above 0.95 all year round, which belongs to one of the upstream and downstream combinations with the strongest linkage in the chemical industry chain.
From the perspective of conduction rhythm, this round of market performance shows that from the perspective of conduction rhythm, this round of market performance shows raw materials rise first, finished products follow up immediately, no stagflation, no upside down raw materials rise first, and finished products follow up immediately, no stagflation, no upside down healthy conduction form. Different from the lag conduction of other chemical products "raw materials rise, finished products are stable", the HPEG and TPEG industries have a high degree of marketization, transparent production, and fast inventory turnover. There is no bargaining buffer space for single manufacturers. Raw material cost fluctuations can be transmitted to the end point quotation on the same day. The next day after the EO price increase, HPEG and TPEG in the two main production areas of East China and Northeast China were raised by 200 yuan/ton simultaneously, which fully matched the increase in raw materials, without premium or shrinkage, accurately reflecting the core rules of "cost-driven pricing" in the industrial chain. The healthy conduction form of. Different from the lag conduction of other chemical products "raw materials rise and finished products are stable", the HPEG and TPEG industries have a high degree of marketization, transparent production, and fast inventory turnover. There is no bargaining buffer space for single manufacturers. The fluctuation of raw material costs can be transmitted to the end point quotation on the same day. The day after the EO price increase, HPEG and TPEG in the two main production areas of East China and Northeast China were raised by 200 yuan/ton simultaneously, which fully matched the increase in raw materials, without premium or shrinkage, accurately reflecting the core rules of "cost-driven pricing" in the industrial chain.
At the same time, the price difference pattern between HPEG and TPEG is also in line with the process value logic. TPEG (isopentenol polyoxyethylene ether) requires higher purity of monomer raw materials, stronger polymerization stability, better slump retention performance of end point water reducer, production unit consumption and refining costs are slightly higher than HPEG, so the industry has maintained a reasonable price difference of "TPEG is always higher than HPEG 200 yuan/ton" for a long time. After this round of price increases, the price difference pattern remains stable, which confirms that the price difference pattern between HPEG and TPEG is also in line with the process value logic. TPEG (isopentenol polyoxyethylene ether) due to higher purity requirements of monomer raw materials, stronger polymerization stability, better slump retention performance of end point water reducer, production unit consumption and refining costs slightly higher than HPEG, so the industry has maintained a reasonable price difference of "TPEG is always higher than HPEG 200 yuan/ton" for a long time. After this round of price increases, the price difference pattern remains stable. The side confirms that this market is a rational price increase driven by pure cost, no market speculation bubble Rational price increase driven by pure cost, no market speculation bubble ...
III. Demand-side toughness: off-season rigid demand stocking hedge year-on-year growth rate weakness III. Demand-side toughness: off-season rigid demand stocking hedge year-on-year growth rate weakness
A key feature of this round of market is that a key feature of this round of market is weak demand, strong stocking, low inventory weak demand, strong stocking, low inventory , breaking the traditional "weak demand, difficult to increase prices" conventional logic. From the perspective of end point fundamentals, the current infrastructure and mixed industry overall operating rate is stable, and the downstream water reducer end point demand growth rate is limited year-on-year. There is no explosive rigid demand support, which belongs to the off-season of traditional industries. However, under the expectation of unilateral strength of raw materials, the market transaction logic has changed from "on-demand procurement" to "cost hedging and stocking"., breaking the traditional "weak demand, difficult to rise prices" conventional logic. From the perspective of end point fundamentals, the overall operating rate of the current infrastructure and commercial mixed industries is stable, the year-on-year growth rate of downstream water reducer end point demand is limited, and there is no explosive rigid demand support, which belongs to the off-season of traditional industries. However, under the expectation of unilateral strength of raw materials, the market transaction logic has changed from "on-demand procurement" to "cost hedging and stocking".
Downstream water reducer processing enterprises and traders anticipate the subsequent strong price of ethylene oxide and monomer. In order to avoid the cost loss caused by the subsequent continuous price increase, they focus on replenishing the warehouse to quickly digest the backlog of the monomer factory in the early stage. Short-term centralized stocking directly revitalized the market transaction, and the low-priced supply in the market was quickly cleared. The actual order transaction price moved steadily upward, completely reversing the deserted pattern of the previous market downturn and weak bargaining. This "off-season stocking-driven market repair" fully reflects the downstream water reducer processing enterprises and traders in the polyether monomer industry anticipate the subsequent strong price of ethylene oxide and monomer. In order to avoid the cost loss caused by the subsequent continuous price increase, they focus on replenishing the warehouse and quickly digest the backlog of the monomer factory in the early stage. The short-term centralized stocking directly revitalized the market transaction, the low-priced supply on the market was quickly cleared, and the actual order transaction price moved steadily upward, completely reversing the deserted pattern of the previous market downturn and weak bargaining. This "off-season stocking-driven market repair" fully reflects the short-term transaction characteristics of the polyether monomer industry cost expectations take precedence over real demand .
From the perspective of regional price difference, East China relies on huge polyether production capacity and active end point transactions. The price is always higher than that of Northeast China. The regional price difference remains at 100 yuan/ton, which is in line with the industrial pattern of East China's main sales and Northeast China's main production. The market transaction structure is healthy, there is no regional arbitrage chaos, and the market stability is extremely strong. From the perspective of regional price difference, East China relies on huge polyether production capacity and active end point transactions. The price is always higher than that of Northeast China. The regional price difference remains at 100 yuan/ton, which is in line with the industrial pattern of East China's main sales and Northeast China's main production. The market transaction structure is healthy, there is no regional arbitrage chaos, and the market stability is extremely strong.
Fourth, the industry's exclusive depth review: the core reasons for the stability of this round of the market Fourth, the industry's exclusive depth review: the core reasons for the stability of this round of the market
Looking at most of the categories that skyrocketed and plummeted in the chemical market during the same period, this round of ethylene oxide-polyether monomer market presents most of the categories that skyrocketed and plummeted in the chemical market during the same period. This round of ethylene oxide-polyether monomer market presents the unique characteristics of moderate rise, stable rhythm, no foam, and strong sustainability. The core is derived from the equilibrium game of long and short power. From the perspective of long-term support, ethylene high-level bottom support, high-profit ethylene glycol crowding out EO production capacity, equipment maintenance and shrinkage, and downstream risk-aversion replenishment form a joint force; from the perspective of short-term suppression, there is no explosive growth in demand at the end point, the overall overcapacity of the industry, and the overall controllable market inventory, which effectively limits the irrational surge in prices. Under long-short hedging, the market shows a rational trend of steady rise, which is also the deep reason for the "slow and stable frequency of EO price adjustment" mentioned in the original text. The unique characteristics of the core stem from the equilibrium game of long-short power. From the perspective of long support, ethylene high bottom support, high profits of ethylene glycol crowding out EO production capacity, equipment maintenance and shrinkage, and downstream risk aversion replenishment form a joint force; from the perspective of short suppression, there is no explosive growth in demand at the end point, the overall overcapacity of the industry, and the overall controllable market inventory, which effectively limits the irrational surge in prices. Under long and short hedging, the market shows a rational trend of steady rise, which is also the underlying reason for the "slow and stable frequency of EO price adjustment" mentioned in the original text.
Unlike the hype market of TDI, titanium dioxide and other leading control panels and group prices, the polyether monomer industry has sufficient market competition, concentrated small and medium-sized production capacity, and transparent information. The price is completely dominated by cost and supply and demand, and there is no artificial control market hype. This round of price increases is different from the hype market of TDI, titanium dioxide and other leading control panels and group prices. The polyether monomer industry has sufficient market competition, concentrated small and medium-sized production capacity, and transparent information. The price is completely dominated by cost and supply and demand. There is no artificial control market hype. This round of price increases is a normal repair market for the rebalancing of supply and demand in the industrial chain. The normal repair market for the rebalancing of supply and demand in the industrial chain , rather than the abnormal price increases caused by capital speculation or industry monopoly. The authenticity and landing of the market far exceed that of most chemical categories in the same period., rather than the abnormal price increases caused by capital speculation or industry monopoly, the authenticity and landing of the market far exceed that of most chemical categories in the same period.
5. Market outlook anticipating and industry chain game trend 5. Market outlook anticipating and industry chain game trend
In the short term, the strong trend of ethylene oxide and polycarboxylic acid monomers will continue. The high price of ethylene in upstream Northeast Asia is firm, and the cost base is stable; although ethylene glycol has a small correction in the short term, it is still in the high profit range as a whole. The co-production unit will not quickly switch back to EO production in the short term, and the tight supply pattern of ethylene oxide is difficult to reverse. At the same time, the stocking sentiment at the downstream end point has not subsided, and the low inventory supports the actual order transaction. The overall market is easy to rise and difficult to fall. In the short term, the strong trend of ethylene oxide and polycarboxylic acid monomers will continue. The upstream Northeast Asia ethylene price is high and firm, and the cost base is stable; although ethylene glycol has a small short-term correction, it is still in the high profit range as a whole, and the co-production plant will not quickly switch back to EO production in the short term, and the tight ethylene oxide supply pattern is difficult to reverse; at the same time, the downstream end point stocking sentiment has not yet subsided, and the low inventory supports the actual order transaction. The overall market is easy to rise and fall.
In the medium and long term dimension, the market will enter the medium and long term dimension, and the market will enter a new stage of stable cost, stable demand, and stable demand. If the follow-up infrastructure and real estate end point demand steadily pick up and superimpose the traditional peak season, polyether monomer is expected to usher in a second upswing; if the end point demand continues to be weak, the price will rely on the high EO cost bottom line to maintain stability, narrowing the increase and fluctuating the trend. At the same time, we need to focus on two variables: first, the price trend of ethylene glycol, if it falls sharply, the co-production device will restart the EO production capacity, loose supply will suppress the price of the single unit; second, the domestic EO device maintenance landing situation, centralized maintenance will further tighten the spot, support the price upward. The new stage. If the follow-up infrastructure, real estate end point demand steadily pick up, superimposed on the traditional peak season, polyether monomer is expected to usher in a second rise in the market; if the end point demand continues to be weak, the price will rely on the EO cost bottom line high to maintain stability, narrowing the increase, trend fluctuations. At the same time, it is necessary to focus on two variables: first, the price trend of ethylene glycol, if it falls sharply, the co-production plant will restart the EO production capacity, and the loose supply will suppress the single price; second, the domestic EO plant maintenance landing situation, centralized maintenance will further tighten the spot, supporting the price upward.
From the perspective of the profit distribution of the industrial chain, this round of quotes once again verifies the inherent pattern of the polyether industry: From the perspective of the profit distribution of the industrial chain, this round of quotes once again verifies the inherent pattern of the polyether industry: The upstream raw material end controls the pricing power, the downstream monomer end passively follows up, the profit is concentrated upstream The upstream raw material end controls the pricing power, the downstream monomer end passively follows up, and the profit is concentrated upstream . The polyether monomer industry has excess capacity and serious competition. It can only follow the fluctuations in raw materials to repair profits, and has no independent pricing ability. This is also a long-term structural pain point in the industry. In the future, the improvement of industry profits still needs to rely on the The polyether monomer industry has overcapacity and serious competition. It can only follow the fluctuation of raw materials to repair profits, and has no independent pricing ability. This is also a long-standing structural pain point in the industry. In the future, the improvement of industry profits still needs to rely on capacity clearance and product upgrades of high-end functional monomers. | (Note: Parts of the document may be AI-generated) | (Note: Parts of the document may be AI-generated)
